Flying motorcycles and $9-a-gallon gas with 40 years of Dealernews
With motorcycle technology leaping forward almost exponentially and sales figures leaving a long trail in black, it's only natural to ask, what's next?
Rather than bloviate ad nauseum about what we predict to be the future of powersports, we took the questions to the industry. No one has been spared our inquiring minds--manufacturer and aftermarket experts, former racers and generally guys who have been around long enough to provide some proper perspective. In gazing into their crystal balls, our targets sometimes agree, and sometimes they disagree. They are:
* Eric Anderson, founder of Scorpion Sports and a columnist for Dealernews
* Greg Blackwell, vice president of sales at Parts Unlimited
* Lee Edmunds, manager of motorcycle press at Honda
* Paul Golde, product development guru at Fairchild Sports
Dealernews: What major changes do you predict for alternative fuel and engine technology?
Edmunds: Honda R&D is at the leading edge of several exciting new technologies and recently announced the development of hybrid and fuel cell scooter prototypes.
Blackwell: I think we're seeing (alternative technology) in the automotive industry right now, and I think we're going to have a trickle-down effect in the future. I think we'll see a fair trend in that coming in the next five to 10 years in the motorcycle business.
Anderson: Electric-powered cycles are kind of a problem. The batteries are still heavy, and riding a cycle is all about balance.
I don't see hybrid motorcycles as any answer, so don't draw any conclusions from the automotive industry. It's going to be internal combustion engines for a while.
Golde: I don't see any of the hybrid technology trickling into two wheels since (most) motorcycle riders want cheap performance. Hybrid engines are neither.
What about changes in emissions technology?
Edmunds: Several of our street models already meet 2008 CARB (rules). As emissions controls have been made tighter, more emphasis has been placed on creating "50 state" engines that are clean-burning, without sacrificing performance.
Anderson: Emissions technology will get more and more stringent. The OEMs will comply because the technology is there, but then the aftermarket comes along and heavily modifies stuff. It all goes hand in hand.
Golde: EFI and catalysts would go a long way in reducing overall motorcycle emissions if it had widespread use on the street and off-road.
Are the problems with exhaust and noise ever going to go away?
Anderson: Honestly, noise is our biggest problem on the road, especially with unmuffled V-twins, and our biggest problem off the road. It's our biggest problem, period.
The problems come after the bike is sold, whether it's a big cruiser that's got tinkle tubes on it or a dirtbike that's going to have a little bit louder sound for what is perceived to be higher horsepower. Noise is our biggest challenge.
The aftermarket is going to have to take some responsibility here.
Golde: I would love to have local, county, state and federal governments start to enforce the federal noise control laws already on the books. Can you imagine how bad our quality of life would be if cars and trucks had the same percentage of modified exhausts as our industry does?
Off-road trails and even motocross parks are getting shut down because of excessive noise. Motorcycles today have plenty of power; we certainly don't need more noise.
Blackwell: I think the pressure is going to be on the OEs, and then on the aftermarket because the aftermarket guys are going to try to build something that is performance- oriented but makes less noise.
It can be done. Just like with any technology, you have to push these guys to the wall and they're going to come up with an angle.
Edmunds: Noise has become more and more of an issue, not only on the street, but off- road as well. ... If motorcycling is to continue to grow, we have to take a responsible approach to noise. Loud bikes will get off-road riding areas shut down.
What effect will rising fuel prices have, long term?
Edmunds: Hard to say exactly what the impact will be. Motorcycle sales have been increasing for 12 continuous years. There will be some new customers coming into the market because of the improved fuel mileage some of our vehicles have to offer.
Golde: I would hope that the general public finally has a complete change of mindset and makes a conscious decision to ride a fuel- and space-efficient motorcycle. I shudder at the thought of having to drive a car on a regular basis to work or wherever for errands. I love getting 40-plus mpg on a regular basis and being able to use the car pool lane by myself.
Blackwell: No matter what we ride--if it's got wheels and a motor, skis and a motor, or a hull and a motor--we're all wondering what's going to happen with rising fuel prices and the effect on the industry. I think we'll see some positive results for motorcycling because what you see are a lot of people saying, "You know what? I'm going to park my car and start riding my motorcycle to work."
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